Another favourable prediction has been made for the presidential candidate of the ruling party in Nigeria in the coming presidential election, President Muhammadu Buhari.
Financial Digest projects a close presidential contest, perhaps the closest in the history of Nigeria, come February 16, 2019, between the major political parties, APC and PDP. The ethnic origin of the vice presidential candidates will play a major role, especially in the South East, which research also indicated to be the most motivated in terms of increase in turnout on election day, when compared to 2015.
The incumbent president, Buhari is expected to hold on to his strong hold but in a dilapidated fashion, with Atiku chopping of some of his domineering votes in the core north and North Central. The South West is projected in favor of Buhari. Professor Osinbajo and Tinubu factors , remain strong in this region. Amosun’s effort and very aggressive campaign are also major contributors in ogun state, for the presidency. We project that the crisis in Ogun would affect the outcome of only the gubernatorial and not the presidential election.
The South West voting pattern is largely affected by the cosmopolitan nature of Lagos, which constitutes about 41% of the region’s voting population and this is a major diluter of what otherwise could have given APC block votes in the region.
We consider the south-south 58% voters turnout in 2015, a very unusual event that is not likely to repeat itself. The nationwide average voters turn out in 2015 was 43%.
Our interaction and research indicated that despite the influence of the senate president, Saraki, majority of Kwara residents have no reason to vote for Atiku, over Buhari who won the state in 2015.
Donald Duke would be largely responsible for other parties’ performance in the South- South region.
South East is for PDP and remains a no go area for Buhari/APC, whilst some improvements are projected for the later, in South-South.
Buhari/APC is expected to retain the presidency at a projected minimum score of 52% of total valid votes cast, as against Atiku/PDP’s maximum score of 46%. Meager 2% goes to other parties.
PDP’s projected performance despite controlling only 2 regions out of 6,is absolutely amazing. However this could be attributable to a cult like and very high percentage voting support in the South East(92%) and South South(71%),giving an average of 81.5%,compared to an average of just 64.25% for APC in the controlled 4 regions.
The result of the election will confirm or disprove this prediction.
SOURCE: Financial Digest.
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